Economic impact analysis

The economic impact analysis provides the starting point for the SIA, as many of the other effects are consequences of the agreement's economic effects. The economic impact to be analysed is not restricted to changes in Chile's and the EU's exports and imports but cover a vast range of economic factors.

Among the issues that the economic analysis will comprise are:

  • The impact of removing both tariffs and non-tariff barriers affecting trade in goods and services, and investment. As most tariffs have already been removed under the existing trade agreement, the focus of the analysis will be on non-tariff barriers. Also, the impact of liberalising public procurement will be assessed;
  • The impact on SMEs as well as on participation in global value chains;
  • Implementation capacity for administering rules of origin;
  • The impact of the modernised Agreement on third regions, in particular the EU outermost regions and least developed countries (LDCs);
  • Implications which the agreement might have for the promotion of good governance and fight against corruption; and
  • The links between the EU-Chile trade agreement and both parties' conclusion of trade agreements with other countries (such as the CPTPP in the case of Chile or the EU-Mercosur agreement currently being negotiated).

The starting point for the economic analysis will be the CGE modelling undertaken by the Commission, complemented by additional quantitative and qualiative analysis.